Windows 8 Down but not out in 2013

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indows 8's been in the news again, and not in a good way. Again.

Net Applications, the company that measures worldwide operating system penetration by watching 40,000 websites, distilling the results from 160,000 monthly unique visitors, and adjusting the numbers based on estimates of the number of computer users in each country, now estimates that 1.7 percent of the desktop/notebook/netbook computers accessing the Internet worldwide in December were using Windows 8. Of the Win8 users, per Net Applications, about 3 percent are using the touch interface -- or about 0.05 percent of all observed computers.

Windows 7's uptake -- using the same Net Applications measuring stick -- was around 21 percent at the same point in its lifetime, during December 2009. (Windows 8 hit general availability on Oct. 26, 2012; Windows 7 on Oct. 22, 2009.)

     Of course, the world was different three years ago. Windows buyers were eager to try anything not named "Vista," Windows XP owned about 56 percent of the OS pie, the iPad wasn't even a gleam in Best Buy's eye, and the various Mac OS versions just barely topped 5 percent. Three years later, Mac OS versions run over 7 percent and XP still runs on 40 percent of all observed computers.

     StatCounter, the other major horse in the OS counting race, tells a less "optimistic" tale, although its calculation methods are quite different: StatCounter counts hits on the pages it follows -- 15 billion hits per month -- and doesn't reduce them to unique PCs or adjust the numbers for geographical sampling anomalies. (Worth noting that both Net Applications and StatCounter wildly underreport Asian markets, which have seen unprecedented growth.) While Windows 8 hasn't yet made enough of an impact to emerge from the "Other" category, StatCounter puts Internet Explorer 10 use in the United States at just under 1 percent in December. Of course, IE10 is now available in beta for Windows 7, bugs and all, but it ships with Windows 8.

     Over on the retail side, Bloomberg's Naoko Fujimura quotes Fujitsu president Masami Yamamoto as saying that demand for Windows 8 is "weak," with demand in Europe particularly poor. Fujitsu has concommitantly lowered Windows computer sales projections for the first quarter of 2013.

     Just before Christmas, Emmanuel Fromont, president of Acer Americas, told the New York Times, "It's a slow start, there's no question."

     I've been watching online sales of Surface RT tablets at Microsoft Stores in the Unite States, Canada, Australia, U.K., France, and Germany, and at Staples and Best Buy in the U.S., as well as Suning in China, and Harvey Norman Australia. Not one of the online sites has ever shown an "Out of Stock" or "On Order" notification.

     A quick check of the major online ordering sites shows vast numbers of Windows 8-equipped notebooks for $500 or less, and many under $350. I don't see any listed as "Out of Stock." Even the newer, touch-enabled designs are widely and immediately available, with a few sporadic exceptions.

So much for the doom and gloom. Here are the silver linings.
     Michael Dell's keynote at the Dell World conference on Dec. 12 contained many glowing comments about Windows 8:

     With Windows 8 we're on the cusp of the next revolution in hardware and software... [I]n the customer conversations that we've been having, the interest in Windows 8 is quite high, even with commercial customers, who would normally wait a few releases to adopt the new versions. What we're seeing here is really an immediate need, because CIOs are worried about the ramifications of a BYOD world.

     Of course, Dell is sitting on a whole lot of Windows 8 computers.

     On a less cynical note, I have two reasons to think that Windows 8 may not turn out to be a complete crash-and-burn.

     First, the fat lady hasn't yet sung. Surface with Windows 8 is due out in January. Although it may not take the world by storm, Surface Win8 has an easy act to follow. All signs I've seen point to Surface RT going the way of the dodo in short order. A full-on Windows 8 machine with the svelte Surface form factor may have a chance, particularly because netbooks are about to disappear. (According to Business Insider, both Asus and Acer have discontinued manufacturing netbooks, effective Dec. 31.)

     Second, if the Net Applications figures represent anything close to reality, people accessing the Internet with Windows 8 machines are only using the touch interface 3 percent of the time. Clearly, Windows 8 customers aren't yet using the Mr Hyde Metro side of the product. If Microsoft can come up with a compelling reason for everyday consumers to actually use Metro -- yes, that's a big IF -- there's certainly a lot of room for increased sales. Coming up with an app that everybody wants is one whole heckuvalot easier than coming up with a new Windows, and it looks like very few people have even dipped their toes in the Metro gene pool.

This story, "Windows 8: Down but not out," was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Get the first word on what the important tech news really means with the InfoWorld Tech Watch blog.